A wave of resignations from the administration of Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde may not necessarily translate into an electoral advantage for the opposition ahead of the 2027 governorship election, IB Connect has observed.
In a political analysis examining the state’s past and emerging political developments, the media platform argued that the departure of influential government officials should not be mistaken for a guaranteed loss of electoral support, noting that similar political upheavals had occurred under former Governor Abiola Ajimobi without preventing his re-election.
Ajimobi’s administration experienced significant political departures in 2014, involving several commissioners and other senior government officials. Among those who reportedly left were former Secretary to the State Government, Senator Sarafadeen Alli, alongside Lowo Obisesan, Sunbo Owolabi, Peter Odetomi, Kazeem Adedeji and other political appointees.
The crisis also extended beyond the state cabinet, with former senators Ayoade Adeseun and Olufemi Lanlehin leaving the political platform associated with Ajimobi’s administration for the PDP and Accord Party respectively.
Despite the political realignments and uncertainty surrounding his administration at the time, Ajimobi secured victory in the 2015 governorship election, becoming the first governor in Oyo State to win a second consecutive term.
IB Connect also drew comparisons with Osun State, where Governor Ademola Adeleke defeated the APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, in the August 15, 2026 governorship election. Adeleke reportedly secured 511,067 votes against Oyebamiji’s 444,815, winning in 19 local government areas.
Turning to Oyo’s emerging political landscape, the platform identified the recent exits of Chief of Staff Segun Ogunwuyi, Commissioner Ayobami Ojo and Special Adviser Simeon Oyeleke, among other political appointees, as developments that could influence political calculations ahead of 2027.
However, it maintained that the bigger question is whether established political figures can convert their influence, alliances and political experience into sufficient grassroots support to challenge the existing political structure.
With Makinde constitutionally barred from seeking another consecutive term, the coming election is expected to focus on his preferred successor, the strength of his political camp and the opposition’s capacity to present a formidable alternative.
IB Connect suggested that the contest could also expose the growing divide between established political figures and a younger generation seeking greater influence in the state’s political affairs.
It maintained that the outcome of the election would ultimately depend on voters rather than the number of political heavyweights who change camps or withdraw from government.
The platform consequently cautioned against interpreting the current wave of resignations as an indication of an opposition victory, arguing that Oyo’s political history offers enough examples of electoral outcomes that defied early predictions.
