Ghana could have generated an additional $6.56 billion from its mineral wealth in 2025 if the government had secured a larger share of the economic returns from mining, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has estimated.
The projection, published by Graphic Online, emerged from a comparison of Ghana’s mining revenue with Botswana’s performance, with the IFS arguing that the country’s existing arrangement gives the government insufficient access to the financial benefits of mineral extraction.
At a policy briefing in Accra, IFS Executive Director, Dr Said Boakye, pointed to Botswana’s model of working with private mining operators as an example of how governments can secure greater returns from natural resources. Under the arrangement, the state benefits not only from taxes and royalties but also from dividends generated by mining operations.
The institute’s figures showed that Botswana generated $13.4 billion in mining value added in 2025 and captured an estimated 60.9 per cent as government revenue. Ghana, by comparison, obtained only $1.6 billion, equivalent to 11.9 per cent of the sector’s value. Applying Botswana’s revenue ratio to Ghana’s mining industry would have raised the country’s earnings to approximately $8.16 billion.
Beyond the extractive industry, Boakye identified weaknesses in Ghana’s broader revenue collection system, including tax evasion, fraudulent import declarations, corruption and extensive tax concessions to businesses. He recalled that the Ghana Revenue Authority had disclosed losses exceeding GH¢11 billion at the country’s ports due to irregularities in the declaration of imported goods.
He also highlighted the consequences of Ghana’s revenue shortfall, noting that the country’s revenue and grants amounted to GH¢224.88 billion in 2025, against a projected GH¢288.26 billion had collections matched the average revenue-to-GDP performance of 25 sub-Saharan African countries examined by the institute.
To reverse the trend, Boakye called for a review of the country’s mining concession system, greater state investment in mineral extraction and the introduction of production-sharing agreements. He further urged the government to reassess tax incentives and strengthen accountability in revenue-generating institutions, particularly as it prepares the 2027 Budget.
