The latest advance by Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen has transformed a battlefield development into a potentially wider threat to global energy supplies, after the group seized the strategic port of Mocha and moved closer to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The development is particularly significant for Saudi Arabia, which has increasingly depended on its Red Sea route to move crude to international markets as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have complicated one of the world’s most important energy corridors. About four million barrels of Saudi oil are reportedly being shipped daily through Yanbu.
By moving towards the Hanish Islands and positions around the southern Red Sea, the Houthis are potentially gaining greater leverage over a maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. The waterway is also a crucial link between Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal, with about 12 per cent of global trade passing through the route.
That makes the issue bigger than Yemen’s protracted conflict. Any sustained threat to vessels using the Bab el-Mandeb could increase insurance and freight costs, delay deliveries and force shipping companies to take longer routes around Africa. Such diversions can add one to two weeks to voyages, placing additional pressure on already disrupted supply chains.
The energy implications are equally significant. More than seven million barrels of petroleum reportedly passed through the Bab el-Mandeb in June, compared with about four million barrels before the Iran conflict. A prolonged disruption could therefore tighten available shipping capacity and raise the cost of moving oil and other commodities between the Middle East, Europe and Asia.
The Houthis have already demonstrated their willingness to use maritime pressure as a strategic weapon, having previously threatened Saudi-linked vessels and announced a naval blockade targeting ships connected to Saudi Arabia or its Red Sea ports. Their latest territorial gains could give those threats greater practical significance.
The immediate question is whether the group can maintain its new positions and extend its reach towards the Bab el-Mandeb. Such a development could place Saudi Arabia in a difficult position by threatening the very Red Sea alternative it has increasingly relied upon to reduce its exposure to disruption elsewhere.
For the wider international community, the unfolding crisis underlines how quickly a regional conflict can become an economic problem far beyond the Middle East. With both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb facing heightened risks, any further escalation could reverberate through oil markets, shipping costs, global trade and ultimately the prices paid by consumers around the world
