Republican control of Texas is facing a serious electoral test as Democrat James Talarico draws close to Attorney-General Ken Paxton in a Senate race that could influence which party controls the US Senate after the November 3 midterm elections.
With most recent polls showing Talarico narrowly ahead or the candidates tied within the margin of error, rising living costs and concerns over corruption have emerged as major issues shaping the contest in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1988.
Newsweek, in a report by Jesus Mesa published on October 27, said the race had become increasingly competitive, with more than 4.5 million Texans already casting ballots by midday Monday.
The latest polling gives Talarico, a state representative from Austin, an edge of between zero and five percentage points, although no clear lead has emerged. A Fox News poll put both candidates at 49 per cent, while an ActiVote survey placed Talarico ahead by 51 per cent to Paxton’s 49 per cent.
Other surveys also show a close contest, with Talarico leading by small margins. However, the results remain uncertain because the differences fall within the polls’ margins of error.
The economic concerns of voters appear to be giving the Democrat an opportunity to challenge the Republican advantage in the traditionally conservative state.
Ken Salazar, a former US Interior Secretary and ambassador to Mexico, told Newsweek that voters were worried about the rising cost of food, petrol, housing and other necessities.
“There is a lot of pain,” he said.
Polling cited by Newsweek found that corruption, the economy and the cost of living were among the leading concerns for Texas voters. Immigration and border security also featured prominently, with Paxton retaining an advantage among voters who considered immigration their most important issue.
Talarico has linked the cost-of-living crisis to corruption, promising to challenge corporate political influence and support a ban on corporate political action committee contributions. He has also pledged to work towards overturning the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision, which expanded protections for independent political spending.
Paxton, meanwhile, has warned that his opponent’s policies would increase taxes. He has also proposed a $25,000 deduction for each family member’s out-of-pocket medical expenses and has criticised Talarico’s political positions.
The Republican candidate has received support from prominent party figures, including President Donald Trump, Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Senator Ted Cruz, as the campaign enters its final week.
Trump is scheduled to hold rallies in Lubbock and Waco, marking his third visit to Texas this month. Paxton has also campaigned alongside Abbott and Cruz.
However, some Republican strategists have raised concerns about turnout and the party’s performance in suburban areas, particularly Dallas and Tarrant counties, where defections among Republican voters could affect the result.
Early voting has exceeded levels recorded during the 2022 midterms. Dallas County recorded more than 248,000 ballots during the first four days of early voting, an increase of 81 per cent compared with the same period in 2022, while Travis County recorded a 50 per cent rise.
Analysts expect total turnout to reach about 10 million, compared with 8.1 million in 2022. However, the figures do not yet establish which candidate stands to benefit, as Democrats have generally been more likely to vote early while many Republicans are expected to cast their ballots on Election Day.
The financial scale of the contest also reflects its national importance. Talarico raised $64 million in the third quarter, compared with Paxton’s $18 million, according to figures cited by Newsweek.
The race is among the contests Democrats hope to win as they seek to regain control of the Senate, alongside competitive races in Iowa and Ohio.
Texas has remained a Republican stronghold in presidential and statewide elections, although Democrat Beto O’Rourke came close to defeating Cruz in the 2018 Senate election, losing by a narrow margin.
Despite Talarico’s strong showing in recent polls, Democratic strategist Matt Angle cautioned that the state remains Republican-leaning and that Democrats must win the seat rather than assume the changing polling figures will translate into victory.
Early voting is scheduled to end on October 30, ahead of Election Day on November 3.
The final result will depend on turnout, the choices of independent voters and whether either campaign can convert its support into enough votes to secure the seat.
