Russia has suffered a major battlefield setback in Ukraine, with nearly all of its territorial gains recorded this year reportedly wiped out as its forces make virtually no net progress since March, according to a new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The assessment indicates that Ukrainian forces have succeeded in containing Moscow’s advance, leaving Russian troops with “near-zero net gains” since March despite continued offensive operations across the front.
The development marks a significant reversal for Russia’s battlefield campaign, particularly after Moscow made territorial advances earlier in the year. ISW said the situation remained fluid but noted that Russian commanders were reportedly pushing President Vladimir Putin for a large-scale mobilisation to restore the military’s ability to seize and maintain the initiative.
The assessment came amid renewed concern over Russia’s expanding attacks on Ukraine’s transport infrastructure, including a drone strike on a railway near the Ukrainian-Polish border.
Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who had travelled through the area after attending a security conference in Kyiv, condemned the attack after a Russian drone struck a train shortly after a diplomatic service carrying European officials had passed through the route.
Johnson criticised Putin over the strike, while Ukrainian railway authorities said it was highly probable that the diplomatic train had been the intended target after it departed earlier than scheduled because of the threat. The officials aboard the train were evacuated before the subsequent strike, and no casualties were reported.
The railway attack has heightened concern over the growing proximity of Russian strikes to the Polish border and the wider security implications for European countries supporting Ukraine. The Independent, which reported the battlefield assessment and Johnson’s reaction, said the incident occurred as the former British leader returned from Kyiv.
The developments underline the contrasting picture facing Moscow: while Russian forces continue launching attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure, the ISW assessment suggests that their ability to translate those operations into sustained territorial gains on the battlefield has sharply diminished.
