Idongesit Mishael, Uyo
Nigeria’s growing dependence on imported industrial machinery and equipment is raising fresh concerns about the country’s capacity to build a self-sustaining economy, following a record $24.9 billion imports from China in 2025.
The development, which reversed three consecutive years of declining imports from the Asian country, has exposed a major weakness in Nigeria’s industrial structure: its continued reliance on foreign manufacturers for the equipment, technology and production inputs required to expand its domestic economy.
A Senior Finance Expert, Brian Muloni, who examined Africa’s growing trade imbalance with China, said Nigeria’s import pattern reflected a broader structural problem in which African economies continued to purchase the tools of production from abroad because they lacked sufficient capacity to manufacture them locally.
“What China is selling to African markets is not primarily a wave of subsidised consumer products. It is, overwhelmingly, the machinery, electronics, and transport equipment that African economies cannot yet produce for themselves,” he said.
According to figures contained in his analysis made available to our correspondent on Wednesday, Nigeria’s leading imports from China in 2025 included machinery valued at $3.12 billion, electrical equipment worth $1.94 billion and vehicles valued at $1.46 billion.
The figures are significant because they point beyond Nigeria’s appetite for imported consumer goods to the country’s dependence on foreign industrial capacity to sustain production, infrastructure development and economic expansion.
Muloni explained that the problem was particularly pronounced in Nigeria because of the country’s exposure to oil revenue fluctuations and foreign exchange constraints, which directly affect the ability of businesses to finance imports of essential production equipment.
He noted that restrictions in foreign exchange access between 2022 and 2024 contributed to declining imports from China, while improved liquidity following subsequent economic reforms supported their recovery in 2025.
The implication, however, is that Nigeria’s industrial expansion remains vulnerable to developments in the foreign exchange market, since access to critical machinery and production inputs is substantially dependent on the country’s ability to generate and make foreign currency available.
The finance expert argued that the challenge was not necessarily that China was flooding African markets with artificially cheap products, but that countries such as Nigeria had not developed the manufacturing capacity to produce many of the goods they increasingly required.
“This is not a flood of cheap finished products. It is a flood of the tools of production,” he stated.
His analysis showed that China exported goods worth $225.03 billion to Africa in 2025, representing a 25.8 per cent increase over the previous year, while the continent’s trade deficit with Beijing rose by 64.5 per cent to a record $102.01 billion.
Electronic equipment accounted for $67.83 billion of the exports, while transport equipment was valued at $42.86 billion, representing a 70.7 per cent increase. Textiles and apparel accounted for another $33.94 billion.
More revealing was the composition of the exports, with intermediate goods accounting for approximately 45 per cent, capital goods 30 per cent and consumer goods just 25 per cent.
For Nigeria, the figures raise questions about the country’s ability to translate its large domestic market, natural resources and growing infrastructure requirements into a competitive manufacturing base.
Muloni said China’s growing exports to Africa were largely driven by its industrial capacity and search for alternative markets, rather than direct evidence of deliberate dumping of goods below production costs.
He maintained that the real challenge for African economies was their failure to develop industries capable of converting domestic resources into finished products, industrial components and machinery.
The contrast was evident across other African economies. South Africa imported $23.57 billion worth of Chinese goods in 2025, including electronics, machinery and vehicles, but its relatively stronger industrial base gives it greater capacity to negotiate trade arrangements and develop domestic alternatives.
Kenya imported approximately $5.2 billion in Chinese goods, up from $4.5 billion in 2024, while Ghana recorded a trade deficit of $8.71 billion with China, importing more than four times the value of its exports.
In mineral-dependent economies such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia and Zimbabwe, the imbalance was reinforced by the export of raw minerals to China and the subsequent importation of manufactured products and industrial equipment.
Muloni warned that the persistence of this arrangement could limit the financial resources available for economic development, particularly where countries continue to depend on commodity exports to finance growing import requirements.
He said Africa’s ability to reverse the trend would depend on deliberate investments in local manufacturing, resource processing, technology transfer and the development of industries capable of producing intermediate and capital goods.
For Nigeria, this means that the question of economic independence extends beyond increasing crude oil production, attracting foreign investment or expanding infrastructure. It also involves developing the domestic capacity to manufacture the machinery and equipment needed to power those investments.
“Until African economies can make the machines they buy, the deficit will remain not because China is dumping, but because Africa is buying what it cannot build,” Muloni concluded.
